Marco Rubio emerged from Iowa as the momentum candidate in the GOP. His strong third place finish put him close to Trump and decisively ahead of his “establishment” rivals: Bush, Kasich, and Christie. But then came Saturday’s debate and Rubio’s repetition gaffe:

Polls leading up to Saturday’s debate showed Rubio building toward a strong second place showing and another decisive win over his establishment peers, but now Rubio’s stock is dipping back toward the rest of the pack’s. Christie was eager to take down Rubio at the debate, but he came off looking like a bully and probably won’t get much of a bounce out of it. So the immediate beneficiaries of the Rubiobot moment are likely to be the other establishment lane figures: Kasich and Bush. With that in mind, it’s time for predictions for the GOP New Hampshire primary:

Trump: 32  Kasich: 15  Rubio: 14  Cruz: 12  Bush: 12 Christie: 8 Fiorina: 4  Carson: 2

If this plays out, the big picture winner here is also the immediate: Trump. Not only does Trump claim the lion’s share of the delegates but he also benefits from seeing an establishment lane that continues to be fractured and in flux. Will party elites rally around Kasich if he wins? Seems unlikely. But one could imagine them being slower to unify behind Rubio. Meanwhile unless Bush or Christie surprise, they will not have done enough to justify party confidence and might even need to think about exiting the race. If establishment support continues to be splintered among several candidates, Trump’s position will remain relatively strong as the campaign moves into the Southern states.

The Democratic side is much less intriguing in the Granite State. Expect a handy but not race-changing win for Bernie:

Sanders: 54  Clinton: 44